Chicago Tribune, May 2, 2010 by Clarence Page
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/ct-oped-0502-page-20100502,0,557609,full.column
In his 2007 book about the sudden, unexpected nationwide crime drop in the mid-1990s … Franklin E. Zimring, a University of California at Berkeley law professor, found that experts were consistent in their complete failure to forecast that the crime drop was going to take place and how long it would last. Instead, he found “cascades of good news encourage optimistic assessments” about the crime-fighting abilities of government, adding that “crime increases invite observers to conclude that ‘nothing works.’ “