2020 and 2021 brought one of the largest Initial Public Offering (IPO) booms in US history, brought about by an increased interest in digital technologies during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in 2022, this market stagnated because of worsening market conditions and a Fed-sponsored contractionary monetary policy. Once inflation slowed down, the stock market rebounded considerably, leading the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This resulted in market volatility returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2024. As such, analysts predicted that this company-friendly environment would trigger a resurgence of IPOs by 2025.
However, a disappointing first quarter of 2025 has cooled that excitement. Much of last year’s initial excitement was based on a spike in IPOs in 2024. Additionally, the newly elected administration promised in their campaign to deregulate the IPO market and thus encourage investment growth.
However, this narrative overlooked the importance of the tech sector in the IPO market. In 2024, the healthcare sector led the number of IPOs with 43% of all IPOs, but these IPOs only brought in 26% of the total capital invested. On the other hand, the tech sector accounted for 18% of the total number of IPOs, with 23% of the total capital invested. This disparity highlights that tech firms attract a disproportionate amount of investment – and were the real drivers behind the upswing in IPO capital raised in 2024.
Recently, however, investor confidence in tech startups has wavered, mainly due to the volatility of that market. Investors fear overexcitement in a sector that has brought forward the most significant IPOs (such as Facebook and Alibaba), but also some of the worst (with Rivian and Robinhood). As such, tech startups have remained private longer to consolidate their financial records and wait for the right opportunity to go public.
Additionally, major tech companies such as OpenAI have been able to raise enough capital through private markets instead of being forced into a volatile public market that might reduce their valuation. As a result, the IPO market has lost one of its primary drivers of large, high-profile deals. With a lack of substantial tech listings, the predicted rise in 2025 IPO investment appears uncertain, driven more by traditional sectors offering modest returns than exciting tech debuts.
Not only that, but there was a significant chilling effect on IPOs because of the number of tech IPOs conducted in 2021 that opted to circumvent U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulations through a special reverse merger structure. Tech companies looking to go public would reverse-merge a private firm with a public shell company incorporated solely for the purposes of the merger (named a “Special-Purpose Acquisition Company,” or SPAC). The lack of regulatory scrutiny created by the SPAC reverse merger structure generated much controversy amongst investors. It effectively created a loophole in the disclosure obligations regulated by the SEC to safeguard investors from potential share pricing fraud. Consequently, fraud accusations (such as Rivian’s IPO) and poor performance on these IPOs (by 2022, 80% of 2021 IPO’s still hadn’t seen positive earnings and 33% were trading below their opening price) led to investors seeking alternative methods of investments. This created further mistrust between public offerors and potential investors. Thus, even before the SEC regulated this loophole, investments in reverse-merger IPOs had dropped by 93%.
Finally, the macroeconomic landscape does not seem inviting for a public offering led by volatile tech firms. Investors expected the new administration officials to remove Biden-era rules and descale what was perceived as overreaching regulations. The new administration still insists they will conduct such deregulation, but until they do, Biden-era regulations are still enforceable. For now, investors are stuck waiting on whether the administration will deliver their deregulation promises and wondering if it’s worth betting on such rollbacks. This hesitation has only grown with the administration’s recent moves, which increase uncertainty in an already volatile market.
A new trade war has sent markets into a tailspin from which it still has not recovered. Economists have been reluctant to predict a recession, but the Fed has rejected further lowering interest rates, fearing that the administration’s trade war would result in higher inflation. As a result, the market volatility index increased by 52% in the last month, meaning that investors are less likely to invest because of high risk and low returns. If a tech startup wanted to conduct an IPO under such conditions, it would have to sacrifice the expected valuation of its shares. Thus, raising capital will become more expensive, discouraging potential investors.
Ultimately, while early signs in 2024 sparked hopes of an IPO resurgence, the reality has proven far more complex. The absence of significant tech listings, lingering regulatory hurdles, and rising geopolitical uncertainty have all combined to dampen investor enthusiasm. For now, the IPO market appears to be entering a more cautious and selective phase—one where traditional sectors lead modest recoveries. However, the explosive tech-driven growth of past years remains out of reach. Until investor confidence returns, and regulatory clarity emerges, the IPO landscape will likely stay sluggish, especially for tech startups that once used IPOs to fuel their most lucrative deals.