The result of the 2016 presidential election was surprising to many, and disastrous for some. The media focused its attention on social issues, religious freedoms, and healthcare proposals, while foreign trade policies took a backseat during the presidential campaign. However, President-elect Trump was also explicit about his stance on trade. On the campaign trail, Donald Trump labeled the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as the “worst trade deal ever” and has blamed the NAFTA for the loss of many American jobs.
President-elect Trump is a protectionist and his stance on NAFTA is unsurprising. He believes that international trade deals result in a less competitive U.S. market and an overall loss in American jobs. As such, NAFTA is not the only trade deal on Trump’s chopping block. Another trade deal left hanging in the balance of his trade decisions is the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP)—a negotiation between EU and U.S. officials that has been three years in the making. With Donald Trump taking office in just two months, T-TIP may be scraped entirely because of lengthy negotiations that stalled implementation during President Obama’s tenure.
Donald Trump’s campaign was full of surprises and it is likely that his presidency will follow suit. As such, it is hard to gauge the future of trade agreements like the proposed T-TIP. While a spokesperson for Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters that T-TIP is still on the table, the chair of the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade, Bernd Lange reportedly expressed “T-TIP is history” after Donald Trump won the election.
Whatever President-elect Trump decides to do regarding trade agreements like NAFTA and T-TIP, it is likely that we will not know for some time. Hosuk-Lee Makiyama, Director of the European Centre for International Political Economy said that trade is typically not high on the agenda for newly elected presidents and does not expect to see a trade policy in place during Trump’s first year as President. As we know Donald Trump is full of surprises, we will just have to wait and see.
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